Issues of Macroeconomic Analysis and Forecasting Based on Integrating Annual, Quarterly, and Monthly Statistical Data

Abstract

This study aims to examine the challenges of short–term quarterly and monthly forecasting of economic indicators under conditions of limited real-time data availability while leveraging historical quarterly data. The research incorporates methods for analyzing the evolution of seasonal fluctuations, decomposing quarterly accounts into monthly estimates, establishing intra-annual relationships between indicators, and reconciling production and expenditure-side national accounts.
The integration of annual, quarterly and monthly statistics enhances the informational robustness of forecasts, providing new opportunities for substantiating intra-annual dynamics and improving the reliability of annual estimates of macroeconomic estimates.