Assessment of Russia’s Non-Primary Export Potential under Sanctions

Abstract

Russia’s opportunities and landscape of foreign trade under sanctions have changed significantly. Many traditional ties have been disrupted, and the search for new markets and partners is required. Updated and adjusted by the Russian Foreign Trade Academy, the International Trade Center UNCTAD/WTO methodology for assessing export potential allows to identify promising markets for Russian non-primary exports in changed circumstances, to evaluate opportunities for reorientating commodity flows from unfriendly to friendly countries taking into account anti-Russian sanctions. The article shows the practical application areas of the methodology, as well as presents the results of calculations of Russia’s export potential in various sectors. The key markets for Russian non-primary non-energy exports in current conditions are identified – China, the CIS and EAEU countries, Turkey, India, Iran, other states of the Middle East, and North African countries. It is indicated that 29 countries that gravitate towards Russia’s Greater Eurasian Partnership (CIS members, EAEU partners in the FTA, SCO members, ASEAN) account for over 84% of the total unrealized potential of Russia’s non-primary exports to friendly countries.