Assessment of Export Eff ects Based on Chow Statistical Test Applied to Free Trade Agreements

Authors

  • Иосиф Зиновьевич Аронов МГИМО МИД России
  • Анна Алексеевна Жаркова МГИМО МИД России
  • Анна Михайловна Рыбакова МГИМО МИД России

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24412/2072-8042-2024-7-50-67

Keywords:

free trade agreement, Chow test, exports, Latin American countries

Abstract

 The paper  is devoted to the study of export effects in the context of the Chile-Republic of Korea and Peru-China free trade agreements (FTAs) using Chow's statistical tests. The article analyzes the export volumes of subheading 740311 HS from Chile to South Korea and 230120 HS from Peru to China, respectively. The choice of research objects is due to the relative proximity of the export structure of Latin American countries and Russia.

The Chow test allows to assess the presence/absence of statistically significant changes in the linear trend of export in specified goods before and after the conclusion of free trade agreements.  Using the Chow tests, it is shown that 1) structural changes in linear trend of exports of subheading 740311 of the HS to South Korea are statistically significant after the entry into force of the Chile-Republic of Korea FTA agreement and 2) statistically insignificant after the entry into force of the Peru-China FTA in relation to subheading 230120.

It is shown that relying only on the use of statistical data, bypassing economic and other aspects, cannot provide a comprehensive analysis of the effectiveness of agreements on FTA. However, the inclusion of these factors in the research process contributes to the formation of conclusions necessary for making informed decisions about the creation of a free trade area.

Author Biographies

Иосиф Зиновьевич Аронов, МГИМО МИД России

доктор технических наук, МГИМО МИД России, профессор кафедры торгового дела и торгового регулирования Института международной торговли и устойчивого развития университета

Анна Алексеевна Жаркова, МГИМО МИД России

МГИМО МИД России, студентка 2 курса магистратуры по направлению «Экосистема международной торговли»

Анна Михайловна Рыбакова, МГИМО МИД России

кандидат биологических наук, МГИМО МИД России,  доцент кафедры торгового дела и торгового регулирования Института международной торговли и устойчивого развития университета

Published

2024-07-22

How to Cite

Аронов, И. З., Жаркова, А. А., & Рыбакова, А. М. (2024). Assessment of Export Eff ects Based on Chow Statistical Test Applied to Free Trade Agreements. Russian Foreign Economic Journal, (7), 50–67. https://doi.org/10.24412/2072-8042-2024-7-50-67

Issue

Section

International trade

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