The Phenomenon of Agent-Based Modeling in International Trade Logistics Systems

Abstract

This article presents the author’s interpretation of the results of an efficiency analysis of logistics system design, based on a systems analysis methodology with discrete event simulation and agent-based modeling. The application of agent-based modeling in logistics system design is examined as a phenomenon arising from the necessity to account for an infinite number of factors influencing a finite set of potential participants in national logistics systems. Using a ten-year forecast of the projected consumer base for Russian exports in Tanzania as an example, the study substantiates the argument that multifactorial impact—manifested in events that can drastically change consumer preferences, purchasing power, and countries’ access to mutual trade – should be taken into account.