Evaluating the Foreign Trade Component of Russia’s Economic Growth in 2025 and for the period up to 2028

Abstract

The article provides estimates of the dynamics of the foreign trade component of Russia’s GDP growth rates, corresponding to the parameters of the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation for 2025 and the planned outlook to 2028. It is shown that the contribution of the foreign trade component to Russia’s growth in both forecast scenarios is negative, ranging from -0.5% to -1%. In turn, for the period 2026-2028, the baseline forecast scenario corresponds to the neutral dynamics of the component, while the conservative forecast scenario implies that the foreign trade component slips into the negative territory, reaching approximately from -1.1% to -1.3 %.