Potential Directions for Expanding Russia’s Foreign Trade: An Econometric Analysis

Abstract

The paper examines the prospects for the development of Russia’s foreign trade with so-called “friendly” countries amid shifting economic conditions. Variations of the gravity model of international trade – both with and without a stochastic frontier analysis – are employed to assess Russia’s potential export and import volumes. The study identifies key directions for trade expansion, including Algeria, Egypt, Vietnam, Indonesia, and South Africa. Special attention is given to countries where actual trade volumes have already exceeded theoretical expectations, such as China, India, and Turkey. The findings may be useful in shaping Russia’s trade diversification strategy.