New Contours of the Future of Global Value Chains

Abstract

With the increasing global economic fragmentation and rising uncertainty in the world, there has been much debate about the retreat from globalization. There is no clear-cut opinion on its prospects among experts. Using the example of global value chains (GVCs) as one of the most important actors in the world economy, the article makes an attempt to show the prevailing points of view of foreign experts on this issue. The outline of the possible contours of the future of globalization is considered from the perspective of the efforts being made to strengthen the resilience of GVCs, the prospects for their “servicification” and the consequences of government intervention in this area. A generalization of modern world practices allowed us to draw the following conclusions. Firstly, outward-oriented GVCs, rather than inward-oriented structures confined within their perimeter, have proven to be more resilient to external shocks during the pandemic as compared with single large companies. Secondly, due to the growing knowledge intensity of the world economy, the process of its “servicification” is accelerating, opening up both additional opportunities and carrying additional risks for growing economies. Thirdly, to realize the emerging prospects and stop new threats emerging within the process of participation in the international division of labour, a proactive government policy is required to ensure sustainable growth based on the synergistic use of the country’s internal potential and external factors of economic development.