Risks of Global Trade Fragmentation

Abstract

The article examines the main factors that generate risks of global trade fragmentation, including increasing role of developing countries in the world market, trade conflict between the USA and China, emergence of new production technologies, digitalization, combating climate change, deadlock in the WTO, reindustrialization policy, COVID-19 pandemic, geopolitical uncertainties. These risks are quite high and, moreover, are already partially materializing. In terms of economic feasibility, it is becoming more evident that confrontation in trade should be overcome and closer intergovernmental cooperation in economic policy ought to be facilitated, but the current geopolitical situation may suspend fulfillment of such a scenario to an uncertain future.