Foreign trade relations of Russia under unstable economic environment

Authors

  • Yuri Yurievich Ponomarev The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
  • Dar’ja Maksimovna Radchenko The Institute of Applied Economic Research at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration
  • Aleksej Igorevich Rej The Institute of Applied Economic Research at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Keywords:

exchange rate, foreign trade intensity, exchange rate volatility, system of simultaneous equations

Abstract

Thе is study analyzes the interaction of intensity of bilateral trade in goods and volatility of pairwise exchange rates between Russia and its major trade partners, as the bulk of existing economic literature considers only the one-side causal link from exchange rate volatility to trade in goods. The paper finds that, on the one hand, exchange rate volatility has no statistically significant impact on the intensity of trade relations with Russia’s major trading partners, yet, on the other hand, a 1% increase in average trade intensity with a country results in a 0.3% drop in volatility of real effective exchange rate. Moreover, the authors have empirically determined the most important
channels influencing real exchange rate volatility: the credit channel (Intercountry short-term debt flows), the macrotrade channel (intensity of trade between two countries), and the microstructural channel (a measure of variance - standard deviation - of export transaction volume).

Author Biographies

Yuri Yurievich Ponomarev, The Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Candidate of Economic Sciences
Place of work, post: The Institute of Applied Economic Research at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Vernadskogo prospekt, 82, Moscow, 119454) - the Head of Laboratory of infrastructure and spatial researches; Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy (3 – 5, Gazetnyj perеulok, Moscow, Russia, 125009) - senior researcher; vice-chairman of SOPS VAVT
(119285, Moscow, Pudovkina, 4A)

Dar’ja Maksimovna Radchenko, The Institute of Applied Economic Research at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Place of work, post: The Institute of Applied Economic Research at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Vernadskogo prospekt, 82, Moscow, 119454), researcher of Laboratory of infrastructure and spatial researches

Aleksej Igorevich Rej, The Institute of Applied Economic Research at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration

Candidate of Economic Sciences
Place of work, post: The Institute of Applied Economic Research at the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (Vernadskogo prospekt, 82, Moscow, 119454) - leading researcher

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Published

2024-02-08

How to Cite

Ponomarev, Y. Y., Radchenko, D. M., & Rej, A. I. (2024). Foreign trade relations of Russia under unstable economic environment. Russian Foreign Economic Journal, (3), 57–74. Retrieved from https://journal.vavt.ru/rfej/article/view/2356

Issue

No. 3 (2018)

Section

Foreign trade activity