Predictive Modeling for Non-tariff Measures to Promote WTO Members’ Dairy Exports to China

Abstract

Exports of products of animal origin from Russia have been growing unevenly. Soaring exports of certain product groups is combined with flat figures for others. Exports of poultry and dairy products to Chinese market started to grow simultaneously in 2019. While promotion strategies for both product groups are also the same, the growth rates for both groups differ several times. The author considers the application of veterinary and sanitary measures provided for by the WTO Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures by the importing country as the main reason for the lagging dairy products exports. In accordance with the transparency provisions of the WTO agreements, the WTO System for Information Management on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures and Technical Barriers to Trade aggregates data that can be used to model the introduction of sanitary and phytosanitary measures by WTO members on individual groups of the commodity classification, which allows reliable forecasting of future sanitary measures and signifi cantly reduces the external risks for exporters. The paper assesses building a predictive model for veterinary-sanitary measures application by World Trade Organization members in relation to dairy products using machine learning as a way to promote and predict dairy exports.