Sectoral structure improvement in an economy with raw material exports specialization

Abstract

A comparative analysis of alterations in the structure of economies of Russia and Norway is performed in the framework of Clark-Fisher model. Th e direction of sector shares’ changes in the gross value added followed the traditional views on the postindustrial structural development only partially. Th e captured deviation from trends in the original model was as follows: during 2000-2016 the Russian economy displayed an increase in the primary sector share, while the secondary sector share grew in the Norwegian economy. Relatively small values of the tertiary sector share in the economies of both countries against the backdrop of a suffi ciently high level of the population’s median income also contradict the theory. Results of the correlation analysis, fi rst of all, suggest an inverse relationship between the primary and tertiary sectors having a dominant position in the structural development of both economies, and, secondly, indicate that deindustrialization supported expansion of services in Russia, whereas a similar eff ect was absent in Norway. A case of Norway demonstrates a possibility of simultaneously progressing reindustrialization and tertiarization in the developed economy that is disposing of a strategically unfavorable raw material specialization in exports.