Quantifying COVID-19 Impact on International Trade of Newly Industrialized Countries (the Case of Singapore)

Abstract

The article presents a quantitative assessment of the effects of COVID-19 pandemic on Singapore’s international trade, particularly its exports. Exports were chosen as the main indicator characterizing the state of the country’s economy. The following variables were used as macroeconomic indicators to describe Singapore’s export changes by country: volume of imports, chained GDP, consumer price inflation, employment rate among residents from 2010 to 2020. To combat the social and economic effects of the pandemic, as well as to achieve a long-term goal of keeping companies competitive and able to recover more quickly, the Government of Singapore presented four budgeting options: Unity, Solidarity, Sustainability and Resilience, with a combined implementation cost of S$93 billion. These activities were designed to off set the impact of the decline in employment and economic growth due to COVID-19 pandemic. Based on the above stated options, the macroeconomic indicators presented in the paper were selected. The regression equations allow to describe the changes in Singapore’s exports to various importing countries, including by country. According to the methodology proposed in the paper, it is also possible to predict the changes in the country’s exports by using growth curve models to forecast individual macroeconomic indicators, the values of which will change the resulting value of the entire equation.