Import substitution: preliminary policy results for five years

Abstract

The article considers some of the results of the import substitution policy of the Russian government in recent years. The policy is often viewed both in mass and expert discourse as a reaction to Western sanctions, on the one hand, and as a tool to revive the domestic economy, on the other. Based on official statistics and expert estimates, the authors prove that the recent increase in the production of a number of goods, especially agricultural and food products was attributable not so much to the sanctions regime but to the government support measures, the use of foreign technologies, components and raw materials, and the creation of new production facilities in Russia by foreign transnational corporations. It is concluded that in the modern era of the internationalization of production and digital transformation the country’s economic success depends on its inclusion in global value chains, which is impossible without imports; this makes the declared policy of import substitution less effective.