Factorial, Intersectoral and Cyclical Models in Economic Analysis and Forecasting

Abstract

The article considers some trends in development of approaches to macroeconomic and sectoral modelling in the rapidly changing economic environment, when application of traditional statistical modeling approaches becomes difficult. The considered macroeconomic characteristics include indicators of potential and actual GDP dynamics, its main components and determining factors, including specific factors. The study of dynamic series of macroeconomic indicators is based on methods using factorial and cyclical models. Methods for estimating model’s parameters over successive time periods and with notable variability are described. The relevant macroeconomic assessments of development patterns over selected periods of the last twenty years are provided. At sectoral level, the indicators of demand for investment in fixed assets are the objects of the research. The methodological tool consists of functions that model the investment demand from industry indicators set. An approach to modelling the demand for investment from a set of sectoral indicators with short time series and other information constraints is demonstrated. The authors believe that the proposed methods for studying time series and building factor models can be used for analyzing a wide range of economic processes, including the emergence of specific high impact factors.