Scenario Modeling of International Trade Activities of the Sverdlovsk Region

Authors

  • Sergey Sergeevich Krasnykh Institute of Economics, the Ural Branch of RAS

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24412.2072-8042-2022-8-105-118

Keywords:

Sverdlovsk region, foreign trade activity, export, import, regions, dynamics, foreign economic activity, special military operation, sanctions, crisis

Abstract

This study analyzes the international trade activities of the Sverdlovsk region in terms of the commodity and geographic structure, and identifi es its features and trends. The unprecedented sanctions against Russia have signifi cantly aff ected the foreign trade policy of the Sverdlovsk region. In this regard, using the ARIMA modeling method, scenarios of export and import development of this region are built. Based on this method, under the baseline scenario, the drop in exports will be 7 percent by 2024, while imports will decrease by more than 61 percent.

Author Biography

Sergey Sergeevich Krasnykh, Institute of Economics, the Ural Branch of RAS

Place of work, post: Institute of Economics, the Ural Branch of RAS, Laboratory of Spatial Development Modelling

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Published

2024-01-26

How to Cite

Krasnykh, S. S. (2024). Scenario Modeling of International Trade Activities of the Sverdlovsk Region. Russian Foreign Economic Journal, (8), 105–118. https://doi.org/10.24412.2072-8042-2022-8-105-118

Issue

No. 8 (2022)

Section

Foreign trade activity